SZ/AEAF/7/3/9 - A Comparison of casualties caused and expected in pre D-Day attacks on marshalling yards

SZ/AEAF/7/3/9

Item

A Comparison of casualties caused and expected in pre D-Day attacks on marshalling yards

1944

8 leaves

Typescript draft with MS amendments. The paper covers attacks on marshalling yards in France and Belgium and includes tabulated lists of targets which show: targets where predicted casualties exceeded or fell below actual casualties; casualty numbers in targets for which no estimate had been made; targets for which casualties had been greatly over-estimated; calculations of the mean numbers of people killed per ton of bombs in first and subsequent air raids on targets receiving five or more attacks; and calculations of the mean weekly number of fatal casualties per ton of bombs dropped for the period March - May 1944 inclusive.

The paper concludes that predictions of casualties which would result from the offensive against rail centres generally greatly exceeded actual casualties, noting the effect of evacuation on casualty figures, especially in the case of subsequent attacks on the same target.